By
Nitya Chakraborty
The
latest controversial report prepared by the National Sample Survey Office(NSSO)
of the Government of India has exposed
in a revealing manner the deception game of the Narendra Modi regime which did
not allow the survey to be released
leading to the resignation of the two topmost members of the National
Statistical Commission. The report has exploded the myth of high job generation
being claimed by the centre and the leading members of the BJP in the recent
days to mislead the people on the eve of the coming Lok Sabha elections.
The
NSSO report has shown that the unemployment
rate was at its highest level since 1972-73 now and in 2017-18, the joblessness
rate among youth was at a significantly higher level compared to the previous
years and much higher compared to that in the overall population.For instance,
the rate of joblessness among rural
males in the age group of 15-29 years jumped more than three times to
17.4 per cent in 2017-18 compared to 5 per cent in 2011-12.Similarlty, the
unemployment rate for female youth in rural areas stood at13.6 per cent in
2017-18 compared to 4.8 per cent in 2011-12.The unemployment rate for urban
youth was more than their rural counterparts- 18.7 per cent for males and27.2
per cent for females.
This
grim scenario has not been created in a day. It has been a continuous process
and ever since the beginning of the Narendra Modi government, there has been
more hype in talking about new schemes and acche din rather than concentrating
on generation of jobs. On the contrary, the sudden decision of demonetization
announced in November 2016 destabilised the informal economy leading to the
loss of lakhs of jobs rather than creating new jobs. That is why, the NDA
government was most reluctant in coming out with the findings of the real
ground situation in the employment market.
The
findings of this NSSO report are of great significance as this is the first
survey on employment conducted by a government agency after Prime Minister
Narendra Modi announced demonetization. The informal sector employs huge number
of people and this sector was affected most adversely after demonetization.
There was no survey of job losses in this vital sector of the economy. This
survey for the first time tried to do some assessment in totality. The survey
shows that the labour force participation rate(LFPR) the proportion of
population working or seeking jobs declined from 39.5 per cent in 2011-12
to 36.9 per cent in 2017-18. The LFPR
has been declining since 2004-05 but the dip was at a higher pace in 2017-18
compared to 2011-12.
According
to the senior economists, there is no reliable data for assessing the state of
joblessness in the informal sector. The magnitude of the hit received by the
micro, small and medium enterprises following demonetization, has also not been
assessed and the Government has no
policy prescription since it does not recognize that there is really any big
problem in the informal sector. The trading in informal sector is basically
done through cash. Following demonetization, there was serious breach of
channels through which businesses are done in rural areas. According to
economic census, there are 56 million non agricultural enterprises and if 72
million farmers are added, the number of entities will come to 128 million. This
sector has largest number of employment in the country and if this sector is in
distress, how can additional jobs be generated?.This NDA government has focused
on the job generation in industry and high tech areas where the scope of
additional jobs is low. The job policy of Modi government has been a total failure and that has been reflected in
the NSSO survey.
The
immediate task is to organize and revamp the MSME sector and the agriculture so
that new jobs can be generated. What needs to be done is to ensure that the MSMEs
move from employing two people to five or ten or from ten people to 20 or more.
The policy has to be tweaked to see that the 128 million entities are assisted
by the government policies to contribute to additional job generation. Corporates
can only create limited jobs, the bulk of new jobs have to be created in the
MSME sector. Latest figures also show that employment growth in corporate India
has fallen off sharply over the last decade. From around 5 to 6 per cent per
annum to around 2 to 3 per cent today. The big corporates are resorting to
automation and artificial intelligence leading to job losses in many industries
though new areas are being developed for job generation. But there the number
of jobs are few and limited to only high skilled.
The
national political parties have to take up job generation as the core of their
programme in the election manifesto for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The
Congress Party under Rahul Handhi has to work on an ambitious job generation
programme which really can impart a big dynamism to the course of present
jobless growth programme of the country. During the next five years, the total
number of people looking for jobs will total 70 million. The programme of
providing jobs to this huge number is a massive task and the job policy has to
incorporate innovative ideas which were not tested before. A high level panel
including internationally known economists like Dr. Amartya Sen and Dr. Pranab
Bardhan can be consulted to draw up the composite programme. Apart from minimum
income guaranteed programme, this job generation p[rogramme, should form the
core of the opposition CMP in its battle against the BJP and its allies.(IPA Service)
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