By Kalyani Shankar
The regional parties will be
the king-makers in the ensuing Lok Sabha polls. Even the New York Times on
Sunday pointed out, “Most analysts believe neither Mr. Modi’s party, the
Bharatiya Janata Party, nor the Indian National Congress Party will win an outright
majority. That means regional and caste-based parties will probably become the
kingmakers…. .” Despitethe massive ‘Modi
wave,’ the combined strength of the regional parties in 2014 was 212 seats,
which shows they cannot be ignored. Their vote share also was almost
equal. Regional satraps like Mamata
Banerjee (West Bengal), Naveen Patnaik (Odisha) and J Jayalalithaa (Tamil Nadu)
held their sway over their respective states.
The BJP might have a tough
time in fighting these parties. As a strategy, the partywill have to face SP
and BSP combine in UP, ally with Janata Dal (United) to take on Rashtriya
Janata Dal (RJD) coalition in Bihar, try to expand in West Bengal and Odisha
and wait for a post-poll deal with the Telangana Rashtra Samithi and YSR Congress,
as well AIADMK in Tamil Nadu.
Interestingly, going for a
straight fight with the Congress might be easier for the BJP than facing the
different regional parties in the states. Confronting the Congress could be
just ‘Congress- bashing’ but it needs different narratives for the different
regional parties like Telugu Desam Party, YSR Congress, Telangana Rashtra
Samithi, Biju Janata Dal, Trinamool Congress, DMK and AIADMK who have pitted
regional narratives to counter the nationalist narrative of the BJP.
In the south, where the
regional parties hold sway, the BJP won mere 22 seats in 2014 despite the Modi
wave. It has no allies in the southern states. The BJP’s attempt for an
alliance with the AIADMK and the DMK in the post-Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi
era has failed so far. Kerala oscillates between the UDF and the LDF while
Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are under the hold of regional satraps.
There is a mushroom growth of
regional parties since the caste-based identity politics emerged in the eighties
based on caste, religion and regionalism. They work on four major planks –
autonomy, (parties like National Conference), statehood (earlier Telangana and
now Aam Aadmi party), identity (Shiv Sena), and development. Often they combine
two or more of these for their emergence.
There are several reasons for
the growth of regional parties like disenchantment with the national parties,
craving for development, emergence of strong regional leaders and emotional
issues, which catch the attention of the public. In some states like Tamil
Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Bihar and Telengana the regional parties have
succeeded in achieving significant success addressing development and
governance. In Tamil Nadu, governments led by the AIADMK or the DMK have
performed well in public health. In Odisha and Andhra Pradesh the state
governments have done well in dealing with the natural disasters.
The vote-share of these
regional parties has also grown in the last two decades. Even in recent
Assembly polls in Telengana and Mizoram, it is the regional parties who have
performed well, a post-2014 trend clearly visible in states with sizeable
presence of non-BJP and non-Congress parties. Also, most of the state Assembly
elections the BJP lost are at the hands of regional parties. Therefore, it is
clear that the regional parties might play an important role in 2019 polls.
Interestingly, some of the
regional parties also have national ambitions. While the Andhra Pradesh chief
minister N Chandrababu Naidu is working for a national anti-BJP front, his bête
noire K Chandrashekhar Rao is aiming to form a federal front of non-BJP, Non
Congress parties to fight the BJP.
The SP-BSP-RLD alliance in U.P
might hurt the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. They have contested the recent Lok Sabha
and assembly by-elections together with stunning results. Realizing the
importance, the Congress is stitching alliances with the regional parties in
several states. It is going to be a direct fight between BJP and Congress in at
least five major states — Gujarat, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Haryana,
while in others the regional parties will wield their powers. The Congress has
struck alliances with some of them. This includes Maharashtra (NCP), Kerala
(UDF), Karnataka, JD (S), Jammu and Kashmir (National Conference) Tamil Nadu
(DMK), Bihar (RJD) and Jharkhand (JMM). It is crucial for the Congress and its
allies to perform well to cross the halfway mark (272) in the Lower House in
the ensuing Lok Sabha polls.
If these alliances hold
together during the Lok Sabha polls, the results will be very different from
the 2014 elections. Knowing their importance the regional satraps are also
flexing their muscles although only the Congress and the BJP can cross the 50
seats mark. It’s clear that for the BJP, the winning tally will depend largely
on how the party copes with these regional parties, as they are the main
challengers. It must go for a state specific strategy to fight with them.
(IPA Service)
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