By Harihar Swarup
The voters’ mood and the poll-surveys in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh reveal that people have been inclining more towards the Congress and Mayawati’s BSP is no factor. The picture in Chhattisgarh is not clear with rebel Congress leader and former Chief Minister, Ajit Jogi, joining hand with BSP. This will damage the Congress to some extent and that will be gain for the BJP. Chief Minister Raman Singh suffers from anti-incumbency and corruption charge against his son seems to be going against him.
In Telangana, Chief Minister K C Rao is not as popular as earlier and he faces a formidable challenge from the Congress and Andhra Chief Minister Chandra Babu Naidu combine. Doubtless, the Congress has committed a blooper by dividing Andhra Pradesh, creating Telangana, but the party has still deep roots in the two states. It may be recalled that Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka stood by the Congress while the entire country rejected the party. That was post-Emergency period and even a popular leader like Indira Gandhi was defeated. Later, she was returned to Lok Sabha from Medak constituency of Andhra Pradesh.
Congress President Rahul Gandhi kicked off his party campaign in Madhya Pradesh’s Malwa-Nimar region last week. This is particularly crucial in the state’s politics, for the BJP had won 56 of the 68 seats here in the last elections. If the Congress has to displace the BJP from the state, it has to make a dent here.
In all his speeches, certain themes were common. One, he launched a sharp attack on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, for siding with industrialists, waiving their loans, let them flee the country, and engaging in corruption and cronyism on Rafale. Modi’s biggest strength has been the electorate’s faith in his intent and integrity; Congress wants to shatter that. If that works, Rahul will deserve credit for persistence and changing the narrative. The second theme in Rahul’s speech was his claim as opposed to BJP, the Congress was for poor, farmers, Dalit and tribals.
The larger story emerging from Rahul’s campaign is now MP matters to Congress. In fact, this could be the most important of five state elections. The BJP has been in power for 15 years and it is imperative for the Congress to into come back to sustain its own morale; the state has 29 Lok Sabha seats and success could translate into success in 2019; to win a heartland state will improve the party’s national standing and help coalesce a wider anti-BJP alliance.
The road to 2019 is rough. Poll outcome of five states this month and in December will set the stage for the Lok Sabha elections. Already Bihar allies BJP and JD(U)have announced 50:50 split in the seats without specifying what NDA partners LJP and RLSP will get. Meanwhile, NCP supremo Sharad Pawar revealed that the Congress and NCP have found consensus on 40 of 48 seats in Maharashtra. BJP’s generosity toward JD(U) – despite the latter winning two seats in 2014 contesting alone – signifies that alliance could play an important role in 2019, even for BJP. Congress, in any case, can be expected to stitch alliances in most of the states given that it is on the ropes now.
In Bihar and Maharashtra, BJP used to be junior partner to JD(U) and Shiv Sena, but that changed when its stunning performance in 2014 catapulted it to big brother’s role in the both states. Effacing those gains and accommodating JD(U) wouldn’t have been easy for the BJP. Having won 71 seats in 2015 in alliance with RJD and Congress, Nitish is the lead partner in the Bihar government and BJP appears to have accepted his claim of having regained lost ground since 2014.
Because this contention is doubtful, Ram Vilas Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha who head LJP and RLSP respectively have reason to be upset about the BJP-JD(U) deal being announced in their absence. Nitish’s return to the NDA fold has not been to their liking either. When Nitish left NDA, it was these two leaders along with Jiten Ram Manjhi who were expected to bring in backward class votes. They succeeded in 2014, possibly with the help of Modi wave but disappointed in 2015 against the Mahagathbandhan of Nitish, Lalu and Congress.
While falling into the waiting arms of RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav is an option, both Paswan and Kushwaha will not enjoy the neat complementarity here that they brought to NDA. At best their Dalit and koeri base will be appendages in RJD’s huge Muslim-Yadav base and so they can be expected to make more attempts to stay in NDA. The Bihar formula will gladden Shiv Sen as it bargains with BJP. It reveals a BJP willing to make compromises. Broadening NDA makes sense for the BJP. Demonstrating a spirit of accommodation to allies now will send right signals to the prospective partners in 2019 if NDA falls short of simple majority. (IPA Service)
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