By
Arun Srivastava
The
BJP has a running grudge that the exit polls have been consistently
under-projecting its tally in all elections since 2014. It is worth recalling
the exit polls had forecast a BJP government in the 2015 assembly elections,
but when the actual counting began the Mahagathbandhan won. The psephologists had
written off the RJD, Cong and Nitish’s JD(U) at that time.
Obviously,
the BJP allegation does not stand scrutiny as it is no more than propaganda.
Prime Minster Narendra Modi and party chief Amit Shah have been expressing
confidence of the elections going their way. The exit poll predictions of
Friday left Congress jubilant while the BJP has been worried. Exit polls showed
that the Congress was winning or at least leading in BJP bastions of Rajasthan,
Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
The
defeat of Congress in the 2014 election primarily owed to its wrong priorities
and divided loyalties. There was a horizontal division in the party between the
urban people and the rural poor. The UPA government led by Dr Manmohan Singh
was perceived as an instrument Congress as an organisation having the welfare
of the rich and urban people at its heart. Even when policies benefitted of the
poor, an impression was created that he was for the rich. The real nature of
development that took place during his regime could not be perceived in the
correct perspective.
When
L K Advani launched a vicious campaign against Dr Singh and gave him the title
of Mauni Baba, it changed the entire perspective and Congress was defeated. The
BJP hyped up the issue of corruption. The tempo of clean government and
corruption free governance helped the BJP win the state elections after Modi
became prime minister. An
insight into the defeat of the Congress would unravel the truth that in the
hurry to project Rahul Gandhi as the new leader, the party committed hara-kiri.
The urban rich and middle class perceived Congress as its enemy while the rural
poor looked at UPA as its class enemy. The decline in the spirit and mood of
the Congress, which ruled India for nearly 60 years, reduced the party to the
second rung and the party leadership appeared lacking in tenacity to uphold
leadership quality.
The
likely victory of Congress in the latest polls primarily indicates the defeat
of the pro-urban rich and middle class policies of BJP. Modi and his cohorts
openly fielded for the rich. Modi’s anti-poor policies, like stopping food for
the poor and slashing of NREGA proved to be his waterloo. Modi and his
ministers must realise that India is a country of poor and any policy has to
keep in view the needs of the poor. Damage has already been done and it is
unlikely that it would be rectified by 2019 elections.
Modi
has committed a blunder by asserting Congress Mukta Bharat. He could not
comprehend the deep inroads Congress has made in the psyche of the people. His
hitting below the belt has not met with the approval of people.
Congress
leader Sachin Pilot, who is the main contender for the top post in Rajasthan,
said “The anger was very palpable against the BJP in these elections and
people were willing and happy to accept the blueprint given by the Congress.
People want answers for questions which they have avoided for the last five
years as price rise, farmers in distress, economy is collapsing.”
Modi’s
fancy survey asked people to record their views on a number of issues,
including demonetisation. ‘Do you mind the inconvenience faced in our fight to
curb corruption, black money, terrorism & counterfeiting of money? To
which: 43% of respondents replied “not at all” and another 48% ticked the
option “somewhat, but worth it”. Only 8% of people answered “yes” – they minded
the inconvenience.
While
Modi’s website does point out that the survey’s results are only initial and
has requested “more citizens to actively participate”, this process has not
been entirely fool-proof. “A lot of the people who are suffering the most are
not people who can get on the Internet and access apps in any case. The people
who are suffering the most are people who are living in remote areas, where
banks are very far way. People who don’t have access to plastic money are the
ones who we see queuing up all the time and are most badly hit,” a respondent
said.
One of BJP’s main planks in the
election campaign has been deride Rahul Gandhi and present him as a failure. But
now it appears that people have accepted him. It primarily owes to his pro-poor
stand and not for his resorting to soft Hindutva.
A
preliminary analysis of votes polled makes it clear that worst loser has been
BSP of Mayawati The result is certainly a warning to her that she must stop
treating herself as the super dalit leader as more able dalit leaders have
emerged on the political scene. Instead of consolidating she has been dividing
the anti-BJP voter base. But this time she has come to realise that people have
rejected her design. Obviously this election has weakened her bargaining power
for 2019 and this will motivate the Jadav Dalit to shift towards the new force
the Bhim Army. (IPA Service)
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