By Kalyani Shankar
Prime Minister Narendra Modi in one of his rare “interviews” last week had ridiculed the idea of any Grand Alliance of the Opposition parties to challenge him in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls calling it a political adventurism. “It is a failed idea that has never succeeded. History tells us that such adventurism failed in 1979, 1990 and 1996. People want a strong and decisive government.”
He may have a point as given the inherent contradictions in opposition ranks a lot of give-and-take is needed to formulate a grand alliance. Some Congress leaders are talking of a post-poll alliance at the national level and pre poll alliances at the state level. Taking pot shot at them Modi also pointed out, “Today, those who resisted the Emergency are standing with those who imposed it. Those who went about trying to fight corruption are with the party that has institutionalized corruption at all levels. Parties with a visceral hatred towards the Left ideology and parties espousing Left ideology are sharing stage. Parties whose very existence depended on fighting each other are now friends.”
True, but the counter point is that changing political equations makes the adage true that there are no permanent friends or permanent in politics.
The Opposition is desperate to check the growth of BJP. The second is the fear that if Modi gets another term, they might be completely wiped out. The third is that they might lose their political relevance if they remain out of power for another five years. It is this fear for survival, which might unite them to a large extent.
What are the calculations of the Opposition to challenge the BJP? They expect that the BJP might lose at least 100 seats from its tally of 282 it won in 2014. This would be because the BJP had bagged all the seats in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Goa, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, besides getting 71 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh. In Bihar, the BJP and it allies got 31 of the 40 seats; in Chhattisgarh, 10 out of 11; in Jharkhand, 12 out of 14; in Madhya Pradesh, 28 out of 29; in Maharashtra with ally Shiv Sena, 41 out of 48. It may be difficult to repeat this stellar performance in 2019.
Therefore, the BJP is looking to the northeast (25) and the south (132) for expansion. If the BJP strategy is to retain its present tally and focus on 100 plus seats from elsewhere, the Opposition’s aim is to reduce the BJP’s strength by 100-plus seats. The regional satraps like Mamata Banerjee (West Bengal), Naveen Patnaik (Odisha), Chandrababu Naidu (Andhra Pradesh) and K Chandrasshekara Rao (Telangana) are worried about the BJP’s expansion in their backyards.
The unity moves of the Opposition began when the Congress showed its political shrewdness by supporting a smaller party like the JD(S) to stop the BJP from forming the government in Karnataka three months ago. The photograph taken at the swearing in function of H D Kumaraswamy with a galaxy of top Opposition leaders raising their hands showed the might of the Opposition. Together, they represented over 40 percent of the votes secured in the 2014.The broad aim of the Opposition is to go for a one-to-one fight in 400 of the 543 seats leaving the rest for the regional parties realising that the BJP gets an advantage by division of Opposition votes and multi-cornered contests. The defeat of the Congress candidate in the recent Deputy chairman’s elections shows that more needs to be done to get new allies.
While the BJP has a charismatic leader, unlimited resources, committed cadres and excellent communication skills, the Opposition lacks some of of these. The reach of the parties like the TMC, DMK, TDP and TRS is limited to their respective states. Though a national party, the Congress lacks the organisational strength and its party funds are on the decline. The Left parties are limited to Kerala and West Bengal.
However, all is not lost for the Opposition if they come together forgetting their egos. After all, the BJP won with just 31 per cent vote share. Despite the massive vote swings, the regional parties won 212 seats – with the same vote share (46.6% against 46.7% in 2009). Even parties who suffered considerable loss of seats, such as the SP or BSP or the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam – have maintained their vote share. The recent coming together of the SP and BSP in the UP bypolls has proved that they would prove a formidable combination against the BJP.
The million-dollar question is whether the Opposition will be united before the 2019 polls. Modi is banking on the division in the Opposition ranks. The Opposition has not yet reached that desperation point but there is enough time, as polls are eight months away. The only glue that could bind them is power and if they smell power, they might all come together. (IPA Service)
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