By
Aditya Aamir
If
this was the ‘semi-final’, what will the ‘final’ throw up? BJP and Amit Shah
and Narendra Modi have a thing on their shoulders, and it’s a monster – the
nightmare of a 2019 defeat! A count of loss of votes in the Lok Sabha seats of
Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh will give an indication. There is
also talk of which of the two, Narendra Modi or Yogi Adityanath, managed to
halt the skid in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh in the last week of campaigning.
In Chhattisgarh, both failed to make any impact, Raman Singh’s glowing cheeks
notwithstanding.
The
counting of votes in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh kept everybody on their toes.
For an extended period of time, it looked like a hung assembly in Rajasthan and
MP. Exit polls, except the one by Jan Ki Baat, got it horribly wrong about
Rajasthan. The BJP, despite Vasundhararaje Scindia’s unpopularity and
anti-incumbency, struck enough numbers to deny Congress an overwhelming
majority as was predicted. But, even with the BJP in misery, the Congress failed
to capitalize. If anybody will be disgusted, it will be Rani Padmavati!
The
pendulum kept swinging to-and-fro in Madhya Pradesh, too. Fortunes went to the
wire. Opposition disunity took its toll on the Congress tally. End of day
things would be clear. BSP supremo Mayawati sent out a warning and an
invitation to BSP “MLAs”, asking them pledge loyalty as well as make their way
to Delhi as soon as they’re declared “elected.” Behenji went on to extend
support to a Congress-led government but a Congress-BSP pre-poll alliance would
have given them a clear majority. At the time of writing, the state could go
either way, to the Congress or the BJP.
That
being said, the exceptional showing of the Congress in Chhattisgarh was swept
under the carpet by the trends in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Rahul Gandhi’s
failure to convince Mayawati and the lady’s refusal to get off her high horse
stood out like sore thumbs. Only yesterday Behenji was missing from the meeting
of opposition parties in New Delhi along with Akhilesh Yadav. Tuesday, playing
on Mayawati and Akhilesh’s mind will be the realization that in an alliance
with the Congress, it’s always the Congress that benefits. Chandrababu Naidu
will be able to enlighten both of them better.
Under
the circumstances, chances of the opposition parties learning a lesson from
these state elections are not that bright. K Chandrashekhar Rao is a winner and
CBN a complete loser, drawing a blank in Telangana in alliance with the
Congress. With what face and reason can Chandrababu Naidu go ahead and ask for
opposition unity after the drubbing in Telangana? And can Mayawati reconcile to
Rahul Gandhi leading the mahagathbandan hereafter? And how must Mamata Banerjee
be taking these results?
Regardless,
the BJP has nothing to celebrate. They have lost the “semifinal” and is no more
the favourite to win the “finals”. The party can take solace in the belief that
PM Narendra Modi’s last-week blitz in Rajasthan deprived Congress of an
overwhelming victory but some might argue it was Yogi Adityanath’s doing. Modi
cannot even claim “moral victory” like Rahul did after the Gujarat elections?
Chances are Modi will not utter a single word on these election results. He’s
not even in a position to gloat over the UK court’s ruling on Vijay Mallya’s
extradition.
That
said the BJP will say that people vote differently in assembly and Lok Sabha
elections. But it’s disturbing that the BJP even thought of winning with large
sections of the electorate dissatisfied with it, from farmers to tribals and
Dalits. It’s a victory for Rahul that voters at large believed him more than
they laid trust in Modi. The BJP doesn’t have a slogan to match Raul’s
‘Chowkidar Chor Hai’ and 2014’s ‘Ab Ki Baar Modi Sarkar’ simply doesn’t apply
any longer!
So,
what does the BJP do? The answer is, how about replacing Modi with Yogi
Adityanath? Modi and Shah might not be thinking along those lines but the Sangh
Parivaar could be. The build-up the Yogi has been getting as a star-speaker for
the BJP this past year does give indication, his failure to strike a chord with
the electorate in Karnataka notwithstanding. Such demoralizing speculation
apart, the bottom-line is that the Modi-Shah juggernaut is stuck in mud and
will need some heavy-lifting to get it out and start moving, again. (IPA Service)
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