By
Gyan Pathak
The
BJP has restarted its political machine after a brief halt. Only a fortnight
ago the party had suffered a humiliating defeat in the state assembly elections
of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan.
Party president Amit Shah has already appointed election in-charges in
17 states and a Union Territories to oversee preparations for the parliamentary
elections due in April-May next year. Though the party postures a brave face,
the narrowing options have put them in great duress. Anti-incumbency is a
reality. The strife within and outside the party and the alliance has already
surfaced. The Sangh Parivar is alarmed at the prospect of losing the electoral
battle of 2019, which has made them desperate.
The
party has started preparations to face the challenges ahead during the Lok
Sabha election, but with a sense of desperation similar to that of the recent
assembly elections, which was tagged as a ‘semi-final’ contest for the General
Election 2019. Special attention is being given to Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan,
Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, where they have 149 seats out of 160. These four
states had given more than half of the seats to the party they had won. Any
loss in these states will be difficult for the party to compensate from
elsewhere in the country.
Given the anti-incumbency, a soft term
for people’s anger against the ruling combine led by Narendra Modi and Amit
Shah duo, a repeat performance in these four states seems to be impossible. We
have seen it in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh assembly elections, where they
even could not retain their governments. In the Gujarat assembly election, they
had a very tough time but somehow retained their government. Congress is
emerging in the state, which may make the contest very difficult for the BJP.
In Uttar Pradesh, the party cannot hope to retain the tally of 71 seats this
time on account of double anti-incumbency of the Modi rule in the centre and
Yogi’s rule in the state. Moreover, there is the possibility of the alliance
between Akhilesh’s Samajwadi Party and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party.
It
may not be out of place to mention here that the BJP had won 282 seats in the
2014 Lok Sabha elections out of the 428 they had contested. The rest of the
seats (115), were either given in seat sharing arrangement to NDA partners, or
left uncontested. Moreover, in 62 seats the party candidates forfeited their
deposits. All this means that they don’t have even a considerable presence in
175 out of the 543 seats in the country, what to talk about winning those
seats!
The
second priority is being given to Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Karnataka and
Maharashtra. These states gave 84 seats to the BJP. In Bihar, the BJP has
alliance partners. Nitish’s JD(U) is going to contest 17 seats out of 40. BJP
will be contesting only on 17 seats. This means that the BJP’s tally of 22
seats has already become impossible. There cannot be an increase of seats for
BJP more than the number of seats they will be contesting. It is clear that the
focus is on alliance partners. If the BJP cannot make it on its own, the NDA
should get one; that is the new strategy.
The
party strategists seem to favour this approach even in Maharashtra, where an
internal assessment of the party says that the NDA could get 42 out of 48
seats, but on their own the BJP could not even retain its tally of 23
seats. However, the NDA in the state is
in trouble and the Shiv Sena is demanding more seats.
In
Karnataka, the emergence of the Congress has posed a great threat to the party.
The BJP has 17 out of 28 seats from the state. Congress and the JD(S) of
Devegowda will have a formidable alliance or understanding. The assembly
election results indicate that the BJP will be at the receiving end.
In
Chhattisgarh, the BJP has 10 out to 11 Lok Sabha Seats. There will be a direct
fight between the Congress and the BJP in the state, since Mayawati’s BSP and
the Chhattisgarh Janata Congress of Ajit Jogi combine does not have a
considerable presence. In a direct fight, the Congress should get most of the
seats, as it has performed in the latest Vidhan Sabha elections, in which
Congress just swept the poll. There is a bleak prospect for the BJP in the
state for the coming Lok Sabha election.
In
Jharkhand, BJP has 12 out of 14 seats. There is a strong double anti-incumbency
is the state against Modi rule at the Centre and Raghubar Das rule in the
state. This anti-incumbency has also been reflected in all the by-elections. It
seems that the Congress and the regional parties are emerging stronger. BJP’s
tally is, therefore, likely to be reduced.
Thus,
the second priority states for the BJP are worse than the first in terms of
prospects. RSS is trying to rake up emotive issues out of frustration. There is
no surprise that issues like triple talaq, Ram temple, Sabarimala, Kashmir,
Muslim terrorism, cow, national citizenship and several other emotive issues
are being brought forward for consolidation of votes on religious grounds. The
BJP election machinery will have tough days ahead, and there could be
heightened social and political tensions and violence.
(IPA Service)
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