By Nitya Chakraborty
Prime Minister and RSS veteran
Narendra Modi has fought many a political battles in his long career but on the
eve of 2019 Lok Sabha elections, he is facing a big onslaught from the
opposition parties, especially the president of the rejuvenated Congress Party
Rahul Gandhi on the major economic issues facing the nation, mainly the poor
including those living in rural areas.
Roughly ten weeks before the
crucial Lok Sabha poll begins, the Prime Minister, through his interim budget
has stolen some of the thunder posed by the Congress president through his
declaration of a minimum income support programme for the rural and urban poor
if the Congress is elected to power. The announcement had an electrifying
impact on the poor as the minimum income programme has the potential to improve
the living standard of the poor at one stroke and it could very well contribute
to the rejuvenation of the rural economy.
The Rahul impact has now been
partially neutralized by the announcement in the interim budget for 2019-20 by
the officiating Finance Minister Piyush Goyal that the Modi government will
implement the minimum pension programme for the unorganized workers at Rs.
3,000 per month. This is accompanied by a slew of programmes for the poor and
marginal farmers for enhancing their income. All these programmes together can
take care of the minimum income requirements of the 12 crore farmers both small
and marginal as also the urban poor.
Rahul Gandhi’s programme did
not mention about the amount but the Congress sources mentioned of a figure
between Rs. 3,000 to Rs. 4,000 per month. But here Modi’s budget has made a
composite impact on the poor below the poverty line as also the unorganized
workers equaling or even surpassing that discussed amount of Rahul Gandhi. One
can see it as a game of onemanship in terms of offering doles but for the poor,
this means a lot in their present state of deprivation. Modi’s advantage is
that he is in power and he will do it if he remains in power, while for Rahul,
he has to come to power for implementing his programme and that also depends on
the post election scenario of respective strength of the non-BJP parties.
There is no denying the fact
that Narendra Modi’s advisers have done some solid spadework to tackle the
issue of farmers distress in order to make a turnaround in the rural areas
which are presently seething with discontent. They must have got hold of the draft of the report
prepared by the Congress think tank and incorporated some measures to suit
their immediate political interests. The Karnatka scheme of Krishi Bandhu was a
success and it helped the TRS to ensure a handsome win in the recent assembly
elections. The BJP government has adopted some points from the Karnataka scheme
and focused more on cash transfers.
The Modi government is
implementing such schemes with immediate effect leading to the process of cash
transfer. The budget is for 2019-20 and this is interim budget but it is
difficult politically for the Congress to oppose cash transfers with effect
from December 2018 because that will antagonize the farmers. The Congress is
thus in a catch 22 situation. The
cunning PM has put them in a defensive position on this farm package issue.
The budget has provided Rs.
75,000 crore in 2019-20 for the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi to extend
direct support at the rate of Rs. 6,000 per year to the farmer families. having
cultivable land up to two hectares.
This is quite normal. But in order to make an immediate political impact on the
farmers, the budget has provided Rs. 20,000 crore in the revised estimates for
the current fiscal 2018-19 so that the payments are given within next two
months before Match 31 next. Thus by making the scheme operative from December
1, 2018 and organizing payments by March 31, 2019 for the period of four
months, the farmers will be under the spell of cash support which might bring
good political capital to the BJP.
The Congress can still fight
back this interim budget fall out if the Party leadership, after doing away
with its inflated ego following victories in the three assembly elections, sit
down with the anti-BJP opposition parties and work out both viable seat
adjustments and a solid common minimum programme. Congress has to aggressively
market its programme for jobs and farming community and explain its long term
benefits. Modi was in backfoot for some weeks since the assembly elections were
out. Now he has struck back with his interim budget. It is upto Rahul Gandhi
and his opposition parties to take up the challenge in right earnest and fight
him on policies. The battle is now tougher and Rahul and the opposition have to
be prepared for it in the next three months before Lok Sabha polls.(IPA Service)
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