By
Nitya Chakraborty
Prime
Minister Narendra Modi has lost his mojo after the devastating reverses faced
by the BJP in the three of its ruling states- Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and
Rajasthan. The Modi magic is gone and ominous signals have been given to the
BJP by the people of the Hindi speaking states five months before the scheduled
elections for the Lok Sabha. Prime Minister and the BJP President Amit Shah
tried every trick to win the elections in its so called strongholds and
mobilized massive resources and RSS muscle power. Even in the last part of the
campaign, Prime Minister stooped too low by openly telling in the meetings that
Sonia Gandhi and her family would be named by the extradited Augusta Westland
deal middleman Mitchell as the recipient of the bribes. The hearing was just on
and there was no such possibility but the PM tried to influence the voters. He
failed.
For
BJP, this is the worst hour of its political life after its historic victory in
the 2014 Lok Sabha elections under the leadership of Narendra Modi. BJP had two
perceived assets which the Party had been capitalizing from time to time-one is
PM Modi’s image and the other Ram Mandir.PM was the candidate of the Party in
all constituencies where the BJP candidates were fighting. The party leaders
campaigned – to vote in every constituency for PM who would bring Naya Bharat
in 2022. That magic wand of Narendra Modi is exhausted. After the assembly
elections, the BJP is left with no weapon with which it can fight the Lok Sabha
elections. But this has dangerous implications also. Desperate BJP, being
orphaned, can opt for a ferocious campaign for the building of Ram temple and
try to depend only on communalism to fight the Lok Sabha poll. If that happens,
that may lead to serious consequences in the society and polity.
Prime
Minister Narendra Modi is going to have more shocks in the coming weeks. The
Supreme Court has reserved its judgment on the PIL on Rafale deal. The three
judge bench led by the Chief Justice Ranjan Gogoi has gone into all the issues
regarding the decision making process in the deal. There is every possibility
that the Supreme Court will question the way the PM hijacked the deal to favour
a private company. The Supreme Court bench also will give judgment shortly in
the CBI’s ousted director Alok Verma’s petition challenging the government
decision of sending him on leave. Here also the issue is the authoritarianism
and the irregular practices resorted to by the PMO. In all, the authoritanism
of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi is under challenge both at the level of the
Supreme Court and at the level of people.
The
NDA government has cheated both the farmers and the workers. Former Prime
Minister of BJP Atal Behari Vajpayee said after his loss of power in 2004 Lok
Sabha elections that the farmers anger contributed to his defeat. That anger is
more widespread in end 2018 on the eve of the Lok Sabha elections. Prime
Minister Narendra Modi has not yet understood the dimension of the farmers
distress and the discontent and even after the massive rally of the farmers on
November 30 in Delhi, the BJP leadership tried to take it as a onetime isolated
phenomenon. But the movement has intensified and this farmers discontent is
going to be joined by the two day trade unions general strike on January 8 and
9 against the anti-labour policies of the Modi government. The election results
have created a mood among the disgruntled and the disillusioned that it is
possible to remove this government, Narendra Modi is not invincible, as the BJP
leaders, the government machinery and the big media are projecting. The tide
has turned and that is the big message from the results in the elections in the
three BJP ruled states.
The
organized working class under the central trade unions have allied with the
unorganized for the big strike action next month and this unison of the farmers
anger and labour discontent are sure to lead to an intensive anti Government
mood in the pre election months. The rural India has still not come out from
the adverse effects of demonetization that took place two years back. The
informal sector of the rural economy is still in doldrums and the Modi
government has never thought of taking immediate measures to control the
damages caused to the rural economy by demonetization. The Government and the
BJP took the position as if nothing much has happened and it will heal over
time.
The
scars are still visible. The November 2018 labour statistics are an improvement
over the October data but they are still dismal. According to CMIE, labour participation
rate around 47 to 48 per cent before demonetization fell sharply after
demonetization and it has still not recovered. There was a rise in September
but that increase was negated in October this year. Urban employment rate rose
to 7.56 per cent from 7.27 per cent in October while rural employment dropped
to 6.14 per cent from 6.72 per cent in October. In a little more than a year,
the number of unemployed has more than doubled. Urban labour participation and
employment rates are at their lowest. The number of persons employed in
November came down. The employed persons in India stood at 402.29 million in
November 2018 as against 409.49 million in November 2017. The NDA govt is
gloating over high growth rate whereas the job losses are taking place in a big
way and the unemployed number doubled in the year.
The
situation on the ground regarding labour and farmers are really explosive and
this is the situation which the opposition parties including the Congress have
to take into account while framing their strategy to defeat the BJP in the
coming Lok Sabha elections. The assembly results have shown that the Congress
has to be more receptive and respectful for the smaller parties. An
understanding with the BSP would have helped the Congress immensely in
Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. This is Rahul Gandhi’s first comprehensive
victory after taking over as the Congress President in December 2017.The
countrymen is looking for a fresh common minimum programme freed of crony
capitalist practices and incorporating pro-people agenda benefitting the
farmers and the workers.
Starting
with the winter session of Parliament which began on December 11, the
opposition parties including the Congress and the Left have to project a united
face based on a sustainable programme to meet the challenge of the BJP and its
allies. The sectoral battle is won but the main war is still five months away.
The victory in that war can only be ensured by the Congress leadership with a
broad approach to its allies and a vision for real change. (IPA Service)
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