By
Sagarneel Sinha
Bahujan
Samaj Party chief Mayawati has managed to emerge as a probable opposition
candidate pushing other regional leaders like West Bengal chief minister Mamata
Banerjee, Andhra Pradesh chief minister Chandrababu Naidu, NCP chief Sharad
Pawar and Telangana chief minister Chandrasekhar Rao behind for the post of
prime minister. At this moment, only Congress president Rahul Gandhi seems to
be ahead of Mayawati in the race.
BSP
has lost the past three elections — 2012 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, 2014
Lok Sabha elections and the 2017 assembly polls. In 2014 polls, the elephant,
BSP’s election symbol, even failed to open its account and in 2017 UP
elections, BSP’s tally dipped to a meagre 19 seats.
However,
Mayawati’s decision to ally with her once arch rival Samajwadi Party led by
former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections to
defeat the BJP has been successful, as of now, to boost her political image. It
is an open secret that the BSP supremo has always desired to become the prime
minister.
The
results of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh assembly polls held in
the last leg of 2018 have dented BJP’s juggernaut image. Although Congress has
managed to revive itself it is still very far away to muster the required 272
seats in the Lok Sabha on its own. In the present scenario, it is difficult for
the Congress to win even 100 seats.
Mayawati’s
calculation is BJP will lose the elections but the Congress will not cross the
100mark. The BSP-SP alliance, which according to Mayawati would register a
thumping victory in Uttar Pradesh, would make BSP the third largest party in
the Lok Sabha. BSP has already state level alliances with INLD in Haryana, JDS
in Karnataka, Janata Chhattisgarh Congress in Chhattisgarh and is looking for
alliances in other states too. BSP contesting alone has won 6 and 2 seats in
the recent Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh assembly elections respectively. The
results underline that BSP still has a presence in the Hindi belt and will play
a significant role in deciding the fate of candidates in many seats. And this
situation has revived Mayawati’s hopes of becoming prime minister. Party
supporters and leaders have already started to pitch her as the probable prime
minister.
Akhilesh
Yadav, who was seen with Rahul Gandhi during the 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections,
is now hesitating to speak about the credibility of the Congress president.
However, the same Akhilesh Yadav in the press conference along with Mayawati
said that the next prime minister should be from Uttar Pradesh, clearly
indicating Mayawati without mentioning her name. Also, RJD leader Tejaswi Yadav
visiting Mayawati on her birthday assumes much significance.
In
Bihar, Congress itself is a partner in the grand alliance led by RJD. Already,
Mayawati took Akhilesh Yadav on board to snub Congress in Uttar Pradesh by
leaving only the two traditional seats — Amethi and Raebareli — for the grand
old party. Tejaswi Yadav has earlier supported Rahul Gandhi for the PM post.
But Tejaswi moving closer to Mayawati should definitely worry the Congress.
The
grand alliance in Bihar led by RJD has already swelled with many parties like
Congress, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), Vikassheel
Insaan Party led by Mukesh Sahni, Rashtriya Lok Samata Party of Upendra Kushwaha,
Sharad Yadav’s Lok Janatantrik Dal, Samajwadi Party, CPI, CPI(M), and CPI(ML).
So, seat sharing among the partners of the alliance will not be easy. However,
Congress seems to be more worried because there is a high probability that RJD
will cut Congress’ share to accommodate the other parties.
Bihar
has around 4-5 per cent Jatav Dalit, the core vote bank of Mayawati, and RJD
may even allot a seat to BSP in Bihar. The worst fear of Congress is that
Mayawati may influence Tejaswi to reduce the party’s seat share in the grand
alliance to around 5-6 only. The grand old party contesting less number of
seats will only assist Mayawati in the post-poll scenario if the non-BJP
parties have the larger share of seats in the Lok Sabha.
Congress
president Rahul Gandhi has been trying all political cards to become the next
prime minister. However, opposition leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Akhilesh
Yadav, Sharad Pawar and CPM’s Sitaram Yechury have avoided supporting Rahul as
the main opposition face. It is due to Rahul Gandhi’s relative lack of
experience that the other opposition leaders are hesitating to fight against
the BJP under his leadership. And with Mayawati’s name emerging as the probable
opposition face, she may be able to garner the support from the other
opposition leaders. Already, Sharad Pawar has labelled Mayawati as a formidable
opposition leader. The present developments if continued may see Mayawati even
emerge as the main opposition face against the BJP and this is not a good news
for Rahul Gandhi.
Not
only for Congress, Mayawati’s rise should also cause alarm to BJP because it
will spoil the saffron party’s agenda to pitch Rahul Gandhi against Prime
Minister Narendra Modi. Mayawati is a shrewd political leader having the
support of majority of the Dalits, who account for 16 percent of the country’s
population. So, if Mayawati becomes the face of the opposition, BJP will
definitely find it tough to battle against the BSP supremo because her
candidature has the capability to blight BJP’s efforts to win over Dalits. In
crucial Uttar Pradesh, where BJP is battling hard to retain the 71 seats it won
in 2014 general elections, the saffron party may lose the chunk of Dalit votes
— specially the non-Jatav Dalits — who had supported the party in 2014 Lok
Sabha and 2017 assembly elections. Non-Jatav Dalits account for 7 percent of
Uttar Pradesh’s population.
In
conclusion, it can be said that Mayawati, whose many political obituaries have
been written after BSP’s debacle in 2017 state polls, has managed to send
alarming signals ahead of 2019 elections to both the major national parties —
BJP and the Congress.
(IPA Service)
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