By Nitya Chakraborty
West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee is in the capital for three days to hold series of consultations about the formation of a united opposition front to oust the BJP from power in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. At the Martyr’s Day rally of Trinamool Congress in Kolkata on July 21, Mamata gave a call for the unity of all opposition parties against the BJP for the coming Lok Sabha elections and announced the holding of a mega rally in Kolkata at Brigade Parade Ground on January 19 next year for the ouster of the Modi government. She said that she would be inviting all the anti-BJP parties including the Congress and the CPI(M) at this rally to facilitate the process of solid opposition unity against the saffron forces.
The Lok Sabha elections are less than nine months away as per the normal schedule. The think tank of the BJP including the Prime Minister’s advisers are constantly assessing what will be the best time to go for the poll. RSS leadership as well as the senior BJP leaders are aware that the Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal charisma has waned to a great extent and the 2014 magic will not work. The NDA government’s performance during the last four years has not brought any relief to the common people many of whom voted for the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The communal incidents have recorded steep rise involving the BJP cadres and there is all round insecurity in the country.
All indications, including internal surveys carried out by the BJP suggest that the Party is going to lose heavily in the coming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh due in November’ December this year. If the BJP fails to retain the governments, the rejuvenated Congress along with the other opposition parties, will be in a position to generate a momentum which will sweep away the saffron forces in the Lok Sabha poll due in April/May 2019. Can BJP leadership afford the opposition that opportunity? That is why, the big debate is on in the saffron leadership about the timing of the elections. One view is that the Lok Sabha poll be preponed to December 2018 along with the assembly elections. If that finally happens, the current monsoon session will be the last session of Parliament in its present term.
The Congress and the other opposition parties who are ideologically positioned against the BJP have a great opportunity this time as increasingly, non-Congress opposition parties are becoming ready to work with the Congress to defeat the BJP. The Congress Working Committee leaders have shown accommodative stance to the non Congress opposition after the first meeting of the reconstituted committee by indicating that for the Congress, the main job is to prevent BJP from coming to power in the 2019 poll and if there is a hung Lok Sabha after the polls, the Congress is open to supporting any non-Congress opposition leader as the Prime Minister. This is a pragmatic position at the moment and this should help the process of united opposition efforts before the elections.
As of now, the positioning of the opposition parties in the states of the country is such that there is difficulty in forging a joint front of the opposition parties including the Congress to fight the Lok Sabha polls against the BJP in all states. The best course will be to allow the Congress to take up dominating position in the states where the Congress is the main party fighting the BJP. There are 12 such states and the Congress, as the major party, can seek some adjustments with the smaller anti-BJP parties to prevent the division of anti-BJP voters. This is very important for marginal seats and by now, the Congress should know that such adjustments will be of big help to the Congress in reducing the BJP seats. Then there are states where the regional parties are supreme and they are fighting the Congress and BJP in the state politics. In such states, like Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha and West Bengal, there may not be adjustments for Lok Sabha poll before the elections, but the strategy should be to see that the regional parties support the formation of a non-BJP government, if the NDA falls short of majority.
Here comes the role of the TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee. Mamata is friendly with the Congress as also the regional parties. She earlier made the point that the Prime Minister selection will be made only on the basis of the Lok Sabha poll results. The Congress leadership is now agreeable to this. They have hinted that Rahul Gandhi is their choice for PM but the Party will pitch for it after the poll only basing on the results. Mamata, as the leader of the Federal Front of the regional parties has to ensure that the TRS and the BJD‘s newly elected Lok Sabha MPs support the non-BJP government. Both the Telangana CM Chandrasekhar Rao and the Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik are fighting the Congress in their states. They may like to be the part of the Federal Front but might have reservations about supporting a Congress led government. Mamata has to use her charisma to win them over towards the successful formation of a non-BJP government.
That way, there can be two fronts, one UPA led by Rahul Gandhi as before and the other the Federal Front of the regional parties. Both may proceed together to achieve the objective of unseating Narendra Modi from power. As former Jammu & Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah said after meeting Mamata last week in Kolkata that no opposition front could be successful without participation of the Congress which is the largest single party after the BJP. That is a reality. Among the non Congress opposition leaders, Mamata is best placed to act as a bridge between the regional parties and the Congress. The unity in action of the regional parties and the Congress is the only guarantee for ensuring the ouster of the Narendra Modi Government after 2019 Lok Sabha poll. And yes, the united opposition after Lok Sabha elections, can make that possible. (IPA Service)
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