While
the Opposition has been touting a Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), what is
happening on the ground is quite different. It is quite clear now that a Grand
Alliance is unlikely and instead the parties are inclined to go for
state-specific alliances. This is because the Opposition is not united in
choosing a leader as the prime ministerial face and also the ego problem of the
regional satraps like Mamata Banerjee and Mayawati. All of them want to keep
their options open for a post-poll scenario.
This
is more so after the SP-BSP announced their alliance in Uttar Pradesh on
Saturday and the Congress deciding to contest all seats in UP on Sunday. The
alliance between the SP and the BSP has been on the cards for some time and the
announcement on Saturday only confirmed it. This is indeed a major decision as
the combination will be a success if you look at the caste arithmetic. The
chemistry too should work as it did in the recent by-elections in Gorakhpur and
Phulpur.
Without
these two parties, there cannot be a Mahagathbandhan as their focus is now on
winning the maximum number of seats in their state, and they will think of the
prime ministerial bid after the poll results are announced. “We want the next
Prime Minister to be from Uttar Pradesh and everyone knows whom I will
support,” Akhilesh Yadav said, hinting that the BSP chief Mayawati might throw
her hat in the ring if they get a good number of seats. The RLD might find a
place in their alliance. So, it is clear that there will be multi-corned
contest in UP. The Congress, which was hoping to find a place in the alliance,
is now reconciled to fighting solo in the polls but its morale is high after
the recent win in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. UP has the
maximum number of seats and who wins UP wins India. The BJP won 71 seats in
2014 and losing UP would dent its overall tally in the coming polls.
With
no UPA at the national level, the Congress is trying to focus on state-specific
alliances. There are about 350 seats
where the alliances are already in place. The party has a two-level strategy.
The first is to fight solo in states where it is strong and the second is to go
for alliances with the regional and smaller parties in states.
The
Congress has been successful in stitching alliances with various small and
regional parties. In Karnataka, the party has combined with the Janata Dal
(Secular). In Tamil Nadu, the Congress has been an ally of the DMK. In Bihar,
the party is in alliance with the RJD and some smaller parties. In 2015, the
Mahagathbandhan with the JD(U) and other parties worked well for the Congress
but this time JD(U) is with the NDA. In Maharashtra, the Congress-NCP ties have
been firmed up and even seat-sharing is almost decided. In Kerala, the Congress
leads the UDF coalition. The UDF and the LDF have been alternating in power in
Kerala. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the Congress has an alliance with the
Telugu Desam Party. In Gujarat, the party has smartly stitched alliance with
the local leaders like Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mewani and Alpesh Thakur during
the Gujarat Assembly polls and that continues. In Jammu and Kashmir, the
Congress could go for an alliance with the National Conference.
In
West Bengal, the Congress is divided about the alliance whether to go with the
CPI-M or Trinamool Congress but it will choose one of them clearly. In UP, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal
Pradesh, Assam, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Puducherry, the
Congress might fight solo.
So
where does that leave the Grand Alliance?
It can be successful only when all the anti BJP forces come together to
fight the BJP and going by the present trend it may not happen.
The
opposition is sending conflicting signals about its unity. While the SP-BSP has
announced its alliance, the Telengana chief minister K Chandrashekhar Rao has
been trying to form a federal front with the regional satraps like Mamata
Banerjee.
His
bête noire Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu has also been
trying to unite the anti-BJP forces at the national level and has been talking
to various parties
The
NCP chief Sharad Pawar has been entrusted with the task of talking to various
parties ahead of the 2019 polls. With the parries pulling in different
directions the Grand Alliance at the national level is a mirage.
In
such a scenario with a split in opposition votes in several states it is
advantage Modi as the BJP has a disciplined cadre, unlimited resources, excellent
communication strategy and above all the leadership of a strong leader like
Modi. It is simple mathematics that as long as anti Modi votes are split, the
chances of winning for the opposition are not bright unless they untie. (IPA Service)
The post Looking for the grand alliance: whither opposition unity? appeared first on Newspack by India Press Agency.
