By Aditya Aamir
Now that chaos extends from Punjab to Kerala, tweaking it in Jammu & Kashmir had, it seems, become a political necessity for the Bharaitya Janata Party, the world’s largest political organization by membership. But what good that distinction when the BJP cannot run a government in J&K and cannot afford to let other parties to do so?
It is also kind of odd that 2015 Narendra Modi was on top of the world announcing a government in Srinagar with Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and November 2018, the BJP has slid to the bottom of the mountain. Strange, but November in the calendar has an odd effect on Modi – it was in November in 2016 that he unrolled the life-changing demonetization. Seems like November is when Modi sees double, sometimes even loses sight.
Wednesday, November 21, we thought J&K will get a new government, one sewn together by PDP, NC and the Congress. But then PDP boss Mehbooba Mufti found that the fax machine in Guv Satyapal Malik’s office wasn’t working and People’s Conference leader Sajjad Lone was playing a lone hand. He had the Guv’s office Whatsapp number and shot through a government-making offer. Malik probably is one of those who don’t carry the smartphone to bed, so didn’t see the lone hand play out!
Late in the evening, Malik dissolved the J&K Assembly and went to bed. If this surprised anybody, it did not. Mehbooba mocked the fax machine and Kashmir expert Barkha Dutt pronounced on Twitter that at the end of the day, it was for the good of everyone, most of all to Mebbooba Mufti. Well done. Political analysts and experts have never been let down by the Modi government, especially when it came to Jammu & Kashmir. Without fail, there has been a political crisis every three to four months for them to comment and write about. To some, money in the bank.
So much so, people wondered if there was a government running in Srinagar; the stone-throwers gave plenty of reason that there wasn’t a government running. For most of the PDP-BJP rule, as long it lasted, terrorists ran amok and the army had to do a lot of explaining for tying a human being to a jeep-bonnet. And then the same officer who tied the man to bonnet was spotted entering a hotel room with a woman in a bonnet! The army was forced to do some more explaining.
All the while, J&K politicians floundered from one bee in the bonnet to another bee in the bonnet. It was stinging rebuttal to Modi’s claim of India having hegemony over Kashmir. Now, this latest one. Governor’s Rule in J&K ends December 19 and PDP-NC-Congress thought it right time to form a government. Sajjad Lone also got the same idea at the exact same time. But getting in touch with the Governor was the problem though the Governor is not somebody who can be missed in a crowd. With his girth and build he stands out.
Mufti tweeted. Once, and then again: “Sending the letter also by mail.” Mufti’s Peoples Democratic Party was the largest party in the now dissolved Assembly, 29 MLAs. The NC had 15 and Congress 12. The three parties together would have had majority in the 87-member House. The BJP with 25 would have been pushed to a corner. Sajjad Lone groomed hopes of splitting the PDP and forming government with the BJP, which was an example of supreme confidence with no legs to stand on.
Seems like the BJP was done with playing second fiddle with any party in J&K. Dissolution of the assembly means elections have to be held within six months. But within six months things could drastically change countrywide. Mid-December, the results of the state elections in five states will show what will be unfolding post-general elections 2019; whether Narendra Modi will be top bull for another five years or whether Rahul Gandhi/MGB will have him cornered in the cowshed.
The “semi-final elections” in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana and Mizoram will be indicative of which way the wind blows 2019. Those are fine races happening in all these states and there are thoroughbreds with a good chance to win the derby. The TRS will most likely return to power in Telangana; and Mizoram will be a tussle between the regional Mizo party and the Congress.
Madhya Pradesh will likely give Shivraj Chauhan another chance and Raman Singh might slip through for yet another innings. But you never know with the voter. He might throw all calculations to the wind and we haven’t even talked of Rajasthan! Vasundhararaje Scindia, Yogi Adityanath and Narendra Modi share something in common. All three were given the chance to rule and it’s difficult to see why they couldn’t to the satisfaction of everybody who voted them in.
It’s kind of sad to see people who voted overwhelmingly for a party/leader left disappointed at the performance of those they voted to power. These state elections will decide if Modi still has the mojo with him or not. It will also confirm if a rejuvenated Rahul Gandhi can hold his own. And it will be a sign for the now-together-now-splintered Mahagathbandhan to show that it has the resolve to stand together and fight to win 2019.
Kashmir and Kerala! Top and bottom of the India map. Both are on the boil. With Ram sidelined, Swami Ayyappa may travel north with the BJP paving a road for him to hit centre-stage. Everybody and Adam (not to ‘Miss’ Eve) knows the BJP cannot do without a god/deity riding its rath. The 10th Wonder of India is that after nearly five years travelling the globe, Narendra Modi is still left guessing of his place in Bharat, India, Hindustan! Jammu & Kashmir. (IPA Service)
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