By Harihar Swarup
Loss of three Hindi heart-land
states—Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh—have sent shockwaves in BJP
circles. In a panic reaction, the saffron party made significant concessions to
its Bihar allies JD(U) and LJP in seat sharing for the general elections. Swiftly
moving to counter the fall-out of ex-ally RLSP joining the UPA and the LJP
leader Chirag Paswan making dissenting noises, the BJP has offered JD(U) 17
seats, LJP six seats and an assured Rajya Sabha nomination to Ram Vilas Paswan.
Despite contesting 30 seats and winning 22 of them from Bihar in 2014, BJP is
now settled for contesting just 17. Despite contesting 30 seats and winning 22
of them from Bihar in 2014, BJP is now settled for contesting just 17.
If BJP is aiming for 273 in 2019 on
its own steam, then this deficit caused by Bihar arrangement will have to be
bridged elsewhere. Facing a strong opposition coalition in Bihar, BJP has come
to terms with strengthening NDA and consolidating votes. Recall how JD(U) on
re-entering NDA was not deemed worthy of a Union Cabinet birth and quietly put
up with insult. Now Nitish Kumar’s appeal among Kurmi, Mahadalit and women
voters, and Paswan’s long innings as a Dalit leader are critical to arresting
the decline of BJP votes from 2014 due to the receding of the Modi wave.
Tejashwi Yadav’s display of
real-politick — quickly co-opting Upendra Kushwaha and Jitin Ram Manjhi despite
their recent NDA past—has forced BJP’s hands. While Kushwaha and Manjhi do not
have the stature or party organization to replace Nitish in the Mahagatbandhan,
the Keori and Mushar communities they represent help RJD project a wider social
coalition beyond its traditional Yadav-Muslim base. Moreover, RJD will benefit
from the twin anti-incumbency against the Modi/ Nitish governments at
centre-state levels. Young Tejashwi may also be starting on a relatively clean
state, less trained by the corruption Rabri-Lalu era.
The optics of propitiating Nitish
and Paswan and appearing reasonable to allies will benefit BJP. Estranged
partners like Uddhav Thackeray in Maharashtra and Om Prakash Rajbhar in UP can
look forward to better terms. With Nitish and Paswan cool to Ram Mandir
campaign and staunchly secular, their presence can get more regional parties
into NDA if 2019 throws up a hung Parliament. The Modi-Shah combine’s quick
adjustment to the poll setback show they can be amenable to coalitions. From
the aggressive Congress-mukt Bharat slogan to the defensive art of coalition
mismanagement, the BJP’s trajectory is coming full circles.
Meanwhile all is not well with the
move to forge Opposition unity. Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav has sent
warning signal to the Congress which is keen to be part of Bihar type
SP-BSP-RLD grand alliance in Uttar Pradesh, expressing his unhappiness with the
party for not making its lone MLA in Madhya Pradesh a minister, saying the turn
of events has cleared the way for the SP to chose its line.
He also said he would travel to
Hyderabad to meet Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao who is trying
to forge “a non-Congress, non-BJP front”. A rattled Congress did not react to
Yadav’s remark with top leaders saying they would prefer to wait and watch how
the situation unfolds. Some suggested it is posturing and linked to the
Congress’s performance in the recent Assembly elections.
(IPA Service)
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