By
Harihar Swarup
The
marathon electioneering in five states has come to an end and now there is a
lull before big bang when the results are declared on December 11; Parliament’s
winter session incidentally also begins on that day. Both the national
parties—Congress and the BJP—have put all their might in campaigning in
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram—as these polls
will indicate a trend having bearing on Lok Sabha election in April-May, 2019.
It
is also time to hazard a guess on the poll outcome. Irrespective of which party
wins and which loses, the Congress appears to be having an edge in four of the
five states. In Rajasthan, the Congress appears to be sweeping the poll. There
are many interesting contests in the desert state. Besides being the home town
of Jaswant Singh, mineral rich Jasol has two celebrated sons; one a politician,
the other is a war hero. BJP veteran Jaswant Singh was India’s Defence and
Finance minister till he broke away from the BJP; his cousin Lt. Gen Hanut
Singh, was the hero of 1971 Indo-Pak war. Neither of them used Jasol surname,
which Jaswant Singh son, Manvendra Sing, a member of the outgoing assembly has
started using.
Elected
from Barmer’s Sheo constituency in 2013 on BJP ticket, he has since joined the
Congress and is the party candidate against Chief Minister VasundharaRaje at
Jhalrapatan in Hadoti region.
Contrary
to reports that the Congress is divided in Madhya Pradesh, the three biggies —
Divijay Singh, Kamal Nath, and Jyotiraditya Scindia— have sunk differences;
more importantly the cadre is totally united. They believe if they lose this
time, they are sunk for ever. It is do or die matter for them.
So
far the BJP is concerned, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan suffers from
heavy anti-incumbency, besides gigantic corruption allegations, as in Vyapam.
The state voters are crying for jobs, opportunities elsewhere and Kisans are
very unhappy with the establishment. They want loan waver but, despite promise,
government failed to write off debts. As Chauhan battles to retain power for an
unprecedented fourth consecutive term, the index of rising expectations reveals
a stark mismatch between aspiration and reality.
Yes,
there’s more electricity and better roads, but how to make leap from
subsistence to well-being, from survival to enterprise, from staying alive to
wealth creation? If an all powerful ‘sarkar’ traps citizens in its vice-grip,
fuelling dependence on the state and refusing to allow genuine freedom in
economy how can the next stage of development take place?
Initially,
the BJP appeared to have an edge over the Congress in Chhattisgarh but the
situation changed as poll came nearer. It was thought Mayawati—Congress rebel
Ajit Jogi combine will wean away Congress votes but as it subsequently turned
out the combine damaged both the Congress and the BJP. So the fight has become
neck and neck. It will not be a surprise if the BJP scrapes through.
Election
in down south—Telangana—has turned on expected lines. Congress– Chandrababu
Naidu alliance appears to be lagging behind K. Chandrashekar Rao. These
elections are crucial test for KCR’s governance model; his wide ranging welfare
schemes versus unfulfilled promises.
The
support for KCR goes back to his role in creating Telangana—‘Jai Telangana’
slogans dominate his rallies. After his 2014 electoral victories, he finds
support due to his expansive welfare politics. It has been five years and he
has not delivered on his promises yet he appears to be forging ahead.
Congress
might have been wiped out from Telangana and Andhra Pradesh by committing the
blooper of dividing Andhra, its bastion for long, but the party has deep roots
in the region. That has come to the fore but KCR’s popularity appears to be
intact. Chandrababu Naidu too is a mass leader. He was the Chief Minister of
undivided Andhra and is also the CM of present Andhra after the split but that
was not reflected in this election.
A
senior Hyderabad journalist, who wants to remain anonymous points to increasing
similarities between KCR and the late Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa’s
rule. They both were in complete control of their respective parties. They
relied on welfare schemes to reach poor. They were inaccessible, turning only
to their confidantes. Jayalalithaa battled corruption and KCR battles a
perception of wealth accumulation.
“A
disconnect grows between CM and MLAs, between CM and the people and between
MLAs and the people”, the journalist said.
This
round of five election matters for both the national parties. For one, it is
sheer timing. Coming four months before the national elections, it has been
billed as the semi finals.
The
presence of strong local leaders and local issues also makes it different. But
what is true is that three states—MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh– there is
a bipolar contest. The BJP’s ability to retain power and the congress’ ability
to challenge it is on test, as will be the case in 2019. Two, the BJP, after
string of by -polls defeats in Parliament election and being pipped at the post
by Opposition unity in Karnataka, is keen to prove that it remains politically
dominant and reverse the perception of a slide. The Congress, which has
displayed greater energy and sharp aggression under Rahul Gandhi, wants to
prove that it can convert this into electoral energies. (IPA Service)
The post Congress Poised To Sweep Assembly Polls In Three States appeared first on Newspack by India Press Agency.
