By
Kalyani Shankar
For
a party that appeared to be in existential crisis, the Congress has much to
cheer about following the win in three big states – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh
and Chhattisgarh this month. Success in polls is always heartening and it
becomes even better when the Congress has been facing political wilderness
since 2014. Though it seemed as if the BJP had all the momentum since 2004 but
after December 11, the saffron space has shrunk a little.
The
challenge for the Congress leadership is to take the momentum forward until the
2019 Lok Sabha polls where stakes are very high for both the Congress-led UPA
and the BJP led NDA. After all, momentum matters in politics. A diminished BJP
is not going to sit quiet and allow the Congress to have a free run in the 2019
polls and it might redouble its efforts to win the polls. Modi is an assertive
prime minister and might repackage himself and re-introduce ‘Brand Modi ’in a
different mould. In all probability the alternative politics might get a
momentum if Rahul goes the right way to project his party and himself with a
new narrative, as people are willing to give him a chance going by the poll
results.
Gandhi’s
first priority should be to set right the organisation, which has shrunk
electorally and redouble efforts for opposition unity. The Congress is now
number four in states such as West Bengal, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu and it
has finished third or fourth in many states because many sections like the Dalits,
Tribals and upper castes and even Muslims have drifted away. The BJP’s strength
is that it is a cadre based organisation, it has unlimited resources, best
communication skills and a wonderful propaganda machinery. Internally, the
young Gandhi has chosen to go with the old guard as the message to the party is
clear in his choice of chief ministers in the just won states. He more or less
told the youth that younger leaders will be allowed to build their profiles,
even if they must wait a bit for leadership roles.
The
second should be building alliances. Here, even with the wind in its sails, the
Congress faces challenges. The opposition parties have inherent contradictions.
Gandhi has been showing some boldness by walking with Jignesh Mewani and Hardik
Patel in Gujarat, which helped reduce the numbers of the BJP in Gujarat.
Similarly, the decision to support JD(S) in Karnataka earlier this year to stop
the BJP from forming the government also showed his political adventurism. The
party has tied up in different states like Bihar, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu,
Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, and Jharkhand and is in the process of aligning with
SP and the BSP in Uttar Pradesh. The Congress has to not only to keep the UPA
flock together but also expand where necessary. As a bigger party the Congress
has to be flexible in sharing seats with the regional parties.
The
third is about a new narrative. It is not enough to indulge just Modi-bashing
and negative campaign. Rahul succeeded in tapping the political resentment of the
farmers against the BJP government as also the youth discontent in not getting
jobs. These are the two major issues, which helped him win the three states
apart from the negative sentiments about the demonetisation and the GST. The
caste factor also helped the Congress. Though he is harping on the Rafale deal,
it is not clear how much that has helped.
The
fourth is stitching the Opposition unity. The success in the Assembly polls has
given Gandhi a new image and he should be able to reach out to the senior and
regional opposition parties and ensure that the Congress anchors the coalition.
After Karnataka polls the opposition showed interest in forming a Grand
Alliance but of late the alliance is coming apart with BSP and SP moving away.
It is now clear that the prime ministerial face of the opposition will be
decided only in the post poll scenario. It is quite possible that the
opposition can do the magic if they come together and make sure that opposition
votes are not divided. In fact, Modi’s strength lies in the Opposition
disunity.
The
road to success in 2019 is challenging, but Rahul Gandhi has begun with a good
start. Despite setbacks, the BJP remains a formidable opponent, and cannot be
taken lightly by the Congress as the party is far more organized with its
cadres. Many in the BJP remind the Congress that it must look back how in
December 2003 the saffron party won the same three states but the party lost
the 2004 elections. The Congress should not be carried away by the present
success. It has won the battle but not the war as yet. Time is very short and
the Opposition parties must decide their course of action sooner than later. (IPA Service)
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