By P. Sreekumaran
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Campaigning for the Chengannur Assembly by-election has slipped into top gear with the polling date less than three weeks away.
The by-election has been necessitated by the death of sitting MLA K K Ramachandran Nair of the CPI(M).
The constituency is witnessing a triangular contest among Saji Cherian of (CPI(M), D. Vijayakumar of Congress and P S Sreedharan Pillai of BJP. In the last assembly election, Nair had wrested the seat from UDF candidate P. C. Vishnunath with a majority of over 7,500 votes.
A lot is at stake for all the three contenders. Winning the seat is important for the CPI(M). Defeat here would mean a setback for the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), which is under the combined onslaught of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the BJP, which is determined to better its previous performance. In the last assembly election, the BJP candidate had polled 42,000 odd votes, only 2,000 less than the UDF candidate, who came second.
The LDF has a lot going in its favour. The front was the first to announce its candidate and start election work. The good work done by Ramachandran Nair in the constituency will also stand the LDF in good stead.
Another plus point for the LDF candidate is that the Kerala Congress(M), which has a sizeable presence in the constituency, is inclined to favour the LDF candidate. Although KC(M) chief K M Mani has not officially declared the party’s support for the CPI(M) candidate, pro-Mani elements in the party are sure to vote for the Left candidate. A small slice of the KC(M) vote may, however, go to the Congress candidate as the pro-UDF stance of the PJ Joseph faction of the KC(M) is an open secret.
The Congress-led UDF is also looking at the Chengannur by-election as a golden opportunity to bounce back. The party has pulled out all stops to ensure that it regains the seat it had lost to the CPI(M) in the last assembly election. The UDF has, however, suffered a slight setback, with former Congress MLA Shobhana George switching sides and deciding to campaign for the CPI(M) candidate this time around.
Another problem for the UDF is the hostile stance of KC(M) chief K M Mani. Although Congress and other UDF constituents have been trying their best to bring Mani back to the UDF, which he had left, the latter is in no mood to respond positively to the UDF leaders’ overtures.
The constituency has hogged national headlines with the BJP also entering the fray. The BJP is hoping to improve upon its performance in 2016 when its candidate PS Sreedharan Pillai polled an impressive 42,000 odd votes.
But there has been a sea-change since the 2016 poll battle. The BJP has suffered a major setback with its principal ally, the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) deciding to stay away from the BJP’s poll campaign in protest against what it called the raw deal being meted out to the party. The angry mood of the BDJS, which has a solid presence in the constituency, means that the BJP will not be able to repeat its impressive performance this time. The BJP leaders are drawing comfort from the fact that, although unhappy, the BDJS has not chosen, so far, to severe its links with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the state.
Chengannur assembly constituency has 10 grama panchayats and one municipality. While five local bodies, including Chengannur municipality, are ruled by the UDF, five grama panchayats are with the LDF. The Thiruvanvandoor grama panchayat is under the control of the KC(M) supported by both the LDF and the UDF.
One factor which is causing concern to an otherwise confident LDF camp is the hostile stance of the Kerala Catholic Bishops Council (KCBC), which has strongly opposed the new liquor policy of the Pinarayi Government. The KCBC has openly declared its intent to oppose the LDF candidate in the by-election. The CPI(M) leaders have started damage-control measures. But the various Christian denominations have refused to be pacified by the LDF’s overtures. If a sizable slice of the Christian vote goes to the UDF, the battle for Chengannur could witness a close contest.
Voting will be held on May 28 and the counting on May 31. The constituency has 1, 95,493 votes with female voters outnumbering male voters. (IPA Service)
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