By
Arun Srivastava
BSP
chief Mayawati is brimming with generosity. Like her entering into alliance
with Samajwadi Party after nearly a quarter century of nursing animosity, her
leaving two seats to the Congress president Rahul Gandhi and for his mother
Sonia Gandhi is an exceptional political act. By indulging in such activity she
has managed to send a strong message of possessing a big generous heart.
Bua
who till recently was averse to listening to even mention of the word SP has
turned magnanimous to her bhatija, son of the Mulayam Singh Yadav, the prime
enemy of Bua. Bhatija has also pledged her complete obeisance to her. Emergence
of this chemistry primarily owes to the BJP losing Lok Sabha seats of Phulpur
and Gorakhpur in UP in by-election to BSP-SP seat adjustment. This has raised
their political moral so high that they have forgot the difference between
realism and snobbery.
Mayawati
known for her hyperboles has forgotten the basic element of political maturity
and is depending on the propensity of false ego. Like Modi’s reservation for
EBCs, she treats her entering into alliance with SP as her master stroke, which
in fact is not. True speaking her hasty reaction to a major extent reflected
her insecurity. She might have waited but preferred to move faster. She is not
sure of the political turns and twists.
For
the 2019 Lok Sabha elections SP and BSP have confirmed their alliance in Uttar
Pradesh, declaring they will contest 38 seats each. But she kept the Congress
away from alliance. This again sends the clear message that she intends to
weave an alliance of OBC and dalits. She
is no more in favour of sarvajan (all) unity. It also implied that the twelve
per cent of the support base of upper castes which still Congress commands will
not be transferred to the Dali-OBC candidates of SP-BSP. Not to be forgotten he upper caste supporters
of Congress had supported the SP candidates in Phulpur and Gorakhpur.
Hopes
are being expressed that before the war actually onsets, the Congress may be
inducted into the alliance. This possibility in fact cannot be ruled out.
Everything is possible in politics. But the damage has already been done. In
fact expectation are made that door will be kept open for Congress to join up
with SP and BSP in a post-poll arrangement should the opportunity or necessity
arise. The way Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav are moving ahead one thing is
quite sure that BJP would not have to face a tough challenge. The upper caste
people will rally behind the BJP. Already some backward castes have expressed
their support to the BJP. In the changed situation the shift in the political
loyalty will also have a major impact on the election
The
assembly elections in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh have thrown open the
emerging new political trends. The upper caste people who had deserted the
Congress some 25 years back are veering around the Congress. The farmers and
peasants which too have shifted their allegiance are coming back to the
Congress fold. With these changes taking place Congress performing beyond
comprehension cannot be ruled out.
Mayawati
and Akhilesh ought to realize that dalit perception is changing fast. They no
more treat Mayawati as their supreme leader. The recent changes have brought
about fundamental shift in their political needs and awareness. They are for
asserting their identity than seeking some freebies. One thing is also sure that Muslims have also
come to realize the futility of wasting their votes. In the 2017 UP assembly
polls SP and BSP had both won 22% of Muslim vote share. In this election which
is for Lok Sabha their mandate will prove to be decisive and SP-BSP cannot
expect to garner it.
This
is Lok Sabha election and the BJP will put its best foot forward. Narendra Modi would not certainly provide a
leeway to his opponents. He has the capacity to upset opposition calculations.
What really is needed at this juncture is the mahagathbandhan of the opposition
parties. But the lust for power and more seats has made Mayawati to betray this
compulsion. She has even preferred to ignore RLD of Ajit Singh. No doubt a strong alliance of opposition
parties could have ensured the defeat of the BJP. But unfortunately Mayawati
through her moves appears to be serving the interest of the BJP than leading
the pact for ensuring its defeat. Notwithstanding the opposition’s success in
recent assembly polls and bypolls earlier, voters could make a distinction in
their state-level and national-level choices.
It nevertheless cannot be claimed that the SP-BSP tie up provide a solid
base for the opposition’s mahagathbandhan plans in the state.
The
preparedness of BJP could be understood from the fact that BJP has divided even
Gods by caste. The chief minister Yogi has turned Uttar Pradesh into Caste
Pradesh. Interestingly Akhilesh Yadav himself confessed “BJP can go to any
extent to create differences in our workers. We must be united and counter any
such tactics”. He had also said
that the BJP has promoted hatred and divided people on communal lines. In this
backdrop it was more imperative that a broader alliance could have been formed.
But unfortunately the personal ego and whim has been preparing the ground in
favour of BJP. (IPA Service)
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