By Arun Srivastava
Brexit with an uncertain future is not a politically and economically correct proposition for India. In the wake of David coming out with the proposal of holding a referendum, apprehensions were expressed on the future of Indians living and working in Britain and the relation between the UK and India. While a section of the Indians welcomed the move, others are of the view that it would endanger India’s interests.
But so far, such situation has not emerged, although the manner in which UK Prime Minister Theresa May has been handling the matter clearly indicates that all is not well for the British Indians or job seekers. The debate raging in the political establishment of Britain provides an insight into the confusion that prevails over the issue. There is no surety as to how the interests of the Britons themselves will be protected and preserved, forget about the citizens of other countries.
This is the state of affairs when a significant number of Indians or Brits of Indian origin are associated with the decision making apparatus. According to a survey carried out by a business news agency, Britain faces the danger of losing around 10,000 finance sector-related jobs to neighbouring EU countries if it fails to be a part of the EU’s single market. Most of the major business institutions are seriously contemplating to move out of Britain. This is the primary reason that Theresa May is working on the proposition of no-deal Brexit.
To maintain its trade in a competitive and healthy state, UK is also contemplating to have CHOGM on board. AS of now, EU is the UK’s largest trading partner. What has made CHOGM look profitable is the trade between Commonwealth members, which was pegged at around $592 billion in 2016, is expected to go up to $1 trillion by 2020. Among the Commonwealth nations, it is India that Britain has pinned high hopes on. With migration of EU skilled labour decreasing, the English-speaking Indian talent pool is definitely going to benefit. Indian students should be able to secure more financing for their college degree, as preferential scholarships to EU countries will reduce.
In such a situation India could be seen exporting more talent than the current levels. However, we ought not to forget that one of the reasons for Brexit is the large number of European migrants coming into Britain. At present it is not clear as to what would be the nature of working relation UK would have with India. However, India may have to rework its strategy in aligning with some other key EU nations. Some of the projects and negotiations will go on hold as firms would want to wait and watch before implications of Brexit are clearer.
The UK government’s latest blueprint for Brexit threatens to derail plans for closer trade ties with India as it would prevent Britain from making the kind of concessions on trade in goods that New Delhi seeks. According to details of a confidential joint UK-India Trade Review released to ‘Greenpeace Unearthed’, it would appear that India would be among the countries unlikely to reap many post-Brexit benefits.
UK statistics indicate that there are 100,000 Indian illegal immigrants in the country, the largest representation of illegal immigrants from any nationality in the UK. Despite numerous attempts to enter into a bilateral agreement with India to facilitate the deportation of illegal Indian immigrants in Britain, India continues to resist any agreement, stating that a bilateral agreement will only be considered if the UK relaxes its stance on visas for Indians.
Nevertheless, a survey carried out by the UK India Business Council and Confederation of Indian Industry found that difficulties in obtaining visas and work permits for Indian professionals are seen as one of the greatest obstacles that need to be addressed when drawing up a UK-India FTA. Unless the two countries overcome the mismatch in understanding and expectations, it seems unlikely that India will agree to an FTA with the UK.
Faced with the latest uncertainty about the future of Brexit, the global fraternity has been seeking to know when will Brexit actually happen and why is it taking so long. This has simply added to the speculation of a no deal scenario.
All the political parties seem to be scared of the withdrawal. Maybe they had extended support to the idea in 2016, but as time passes, they have come to realise the futility of the move. In the initial stage an impression was created that UK was the ultimate gainer, but now just six months ahead of the D-day the realisation has dawned on them on the need to wait and watch.
The Tories are not the only party split over the EU Withdrawal Bill. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn saw 89 of his MPs ignoring his orders to abstain on another Lords amendment calling for UK membership of the European Economic Area (EEA) and a soft Brexit. What was even more striking was the way both sides in the Brexit debate defied him.
The Brexit negotiations include two parts: the first is a withdrawal agreement to establish the terms of the UK’s departure. Both sides expect to finalize this agreement by October and the second is an agreement on the future trade relationship. For May this is tricky situation. The fact of the matter is that a Brexit scenario would reduce Britain’s future influence and economic impact.
One thing is absolutely clear that in the existing situation India would have to redraw its own priorities and try to avoid becoming a victim of the confusing political and economic scenario. Even in the event of UK not being able to work out a convenient and satisfactory deal with EU, it would continue to remain a viable economic friend of India. The EU is already the prime trade partner. The UK is India’s fourth largest inward investor and the 1.5 million-strong Indian Diaspora in the UK is not only one of the largest ethnic minority communities but also one of the most productive, contributing around 6 percent to the country’s GDP.
Ever since Theresa May occupied the office of the prime minister she has been desperately trying to have her pleas heard by the EU leaders. Rejection of May’s post-Brexit blueprint at the Salzburg summit rules out nothing as yet in Britain’s rocky negotiations on withdrawing from the European Union. In contrast the development is a blow to May.
The EU holds all the cards and recognises the danger of giving ground. The EU is more interested in Dublin than London. It is most unfortunate that the British government has never understood the Brexit process. On 29 March 2019, 3.7 million Europeans will officially join the ranks of the “foreigners” living in Britain. The Brexit trickeries continue to increase market uncertainty. Neither inflation nor wages show any sign of taking off. The better-than-expected performance of the economy since the EU referendum illustrates just how difficult it is to predict the short-term path of growth. (IPA Service)
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