By
Amulya Ganguli
The
Congress’s revival after having hit the lowest point in its history in 2014 is
the big takeaway from the assembly election results. By the same token, the
Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) hope of ushering in a Congress-mukt (free) India
has been dashed, along with its dream of reigning from panchayats to parliament
for the next 50 years.
At
the same time, there is no denying that the BJP put up a good fight in
Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh by demonstrating that even 15 years of the party’s
rule haven’t made the anti-incumbency factor strong enough to give the Congress
an easy victory as the latter expected.
Only
in Chhattisgarh has the BJP faltered with the Congress;s virtual runaway
success, which is all the more creditable because the party’s entire top
leadership was wiped out by a Maoist attack in 2013, leaving the relatively
unknown Bhupesh Baghel in charge.
The
Congress also managed to fend off the challenge of the so-called spoilers – the
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Ajit Jogi’s Janata Congress, which were expected
to cut into the Congress’s vote share and help the BJP.
However,
as the outcome shows, if the electorate makes up its mind to defeat the ruling
party, then it turns resolutely to the only credible challenger to the
exclusion of the others. The Congress can consider itself lucky that the
mercurial Mayawati preempted the chance of a tie-up with the Congress and chose
the Janata Congress.
In
Madhya Pradesh, too, Mayawati’s decision to go it alone doesn’t seem to have
hurt the Congress to any significant extent. The same holds true for Akhilesh
Yadav of the Samajwadi Party, who also chose to go it alone in Madhya Pradesh.
By
faring satisfactorily in the three heartland states, the Congress has edged
ahead of the other non-BJP parties in the matter of providing leadership to the
proposed mahagathbandhan (grand alliance).
Of
the others, the poor performance of the Telugu Desam in Telangana may have
undermined its leader, Chandrababu Naidu’s chances of leading the alliance.
As
the lead taken by Rahul Gandhi in addressing the media persons after the recent
conclave of the opposition leaders in New Delhi showed, the Congress president
is emerging as the primus inter pares (first among equals) among the opposition
leaders.
It
goes without saying that the Congress’s good showing in the three states is
Rahul Gandhi’s big moment. He led the party from the front by effectively
replying to Narendra Modi’s barbs with the video which the Congress president
tweeted about the prime minister’s incessant harping on the Nehru-Gandhi
dynasty being perhaps the most telling riposte.
There
is little doubt that the outcome has shown that the constant carping on the
Congress’s dynasticism by the prime minister is not helping the BJP as much as
it would like.
Nor
has the building of the world’s tallest statue or the promise to construct the
Ram temple accompanied by side swipes at the Supreme Court’s refusal to be
hustled into the case on the temple when it had met at midnight to decide the
terrorist Yakub Memon’s mercy petition, as a BJP leader said.
Although
it is often said that assembly election results are not always reflected in a
parliamentary poll, the Congress is bound to approach next year’s general
election in a far more optimistic frame of mind than if the party had not fared
well.
On
the other hand, the BJP cannot but be less confident if only because it is
bound to suspect that the Modi magic is no longer working.
One
reason why it is failing is probably that the prime minister’s naamdar-kaamdar
speeches are becoming a trifle repetitive. With the government unable to find
any answers to joblessness and agricultural distress, it is not easy for the
BJP to enthuse the voters.
True,
the Congress also doesn’t have any solutions except the standard recipe of loan
waivers while its economic plans remain hazy. It also has no answers to the
BJPs charge of the mahagathbandhan being a khichdi (a hodge-podge combination),
which cannot deliver anything worthwhile.
But
elections are all about giving an alternative group a chance after having
tested the incumbents. For the BJP, it is not only a stagnant economy which is
the problem, the disarray in the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and the
Reserve Bank are also a disadvantage where the perception of the middle class
is concerned.
Whether
the Congress will be able to politically utilize these drawbacks of its main
opponent is the million-dollar question. The party cannot but be aware that its
post-independence days of glory are long past and that it does not exist as a
major force in large parts of the country such as U.P., Bihar, Odisha and Tamil
Nadu. It is also losing ground in the north-east, as its setback in its last
stronghold of Mizoram shows.
Clearly,
both the Congress and the BJP are hobbled by a number of factors which cannot
be immediately rectified. From this standpoint, they will now be confronting
each other on a level playing field. (IPA
Service)
The post BJP’s Hope Of A Congress-Mukt India Dashed appeared first on Newspack by India Press Agency.
