By Sagarneel Sinha
The recently held panchayat elections in Assam provided a
relief to the BJP, which had lost three Hindi heartland states — Madhya
Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan to the Congress. BJP won 42 percent and the
opposition Congress garnered 34 percent of the total seats in the panchayat
elections.
Assam panchayat structure has four levels — Gaon
Panchayat Members (GPM), Gaon Panchayat Presidents (GPM), Anchalik Panchayat
Members (APM) and Zilla Parishad Members (ZPM). BJP won 50 percent of the seats
in the ZP Member level, the uppermost level. However, the party’s winning percentage
decreases as the levels move downwards. At AP member and GP president levels,
the saffron party got 46 percent and 45 percent respectively. At the GP member
level, the lowest level, BJP was able to win only 41 percent of the seats. The
figures clearly say there is a difference of 9 percent in BJP’s victory between
the lowest and the uppermost levels.
No doubt, BJP has emerged as the largest party in the
panchayat elections. The point to be noted is that in the 2013 local polls, BJP
secured the fourth position, way behind the Congress, All India United
Democratic Front (AIUDF) and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). So, the victory of
the saffron party in the local body polls shows that the party has been
successful to spread its wings in Assam, the most significant state in the
northeast region.
BJP has already aimed to increase its tally from the
state. In the last Lok Sabha elections, BJP emerged as the largest party by
winning 7 seats out of 14. Another seat was won by its ally Bodoland People’s
Front (BPF). Altogether, NDA won 8 seats. This time BJP has targeted to win at
least 12 seats, if not all.
Assam has more Lok Sabha seats than Chattisgarh — which
has 11— and during the last general polls, BJP won 10 seats. But in the recent
assembly polls, BJP lost badly in Chhattisgarh, a state considered as the
party’s bastion. The electorate of Chhattisgarh generally votes in the Lok
Sabha elections in a similar pattern in the assembly elections. Keeping the
trends in mind, BJP is expecting to lose minimum 4-5 seats in Chhattisgarh. Not
only this, BJP is expecting to lose dozens of seats in the Hindi heartland. In
order to compensate the losses, the saffron party is looking towards the
northeast and the east region. And Assam with 14 Lok Sabha seats is one of the
important states for the BJP in 2019.
But if the recent panchayat polls in Assam are
considered, the outcome is not on expected lines of the BJP. Generally, in the
rural body polls, the ruling party always has an edge over the others as the
voters prefer local body representatives from the same party that is in power
in the state to ensure a smooth transaction between local representatives and
state ministers. In Assam too, the BJP benefited due to its status as the ruling
party of the state. Undoubtedly, the recent rural body polls show BJP is
expanding and the party has reasons to celebrate as once the saffron party was
almost a zero factor in the region. Nevertheless, the party shouldn’t be over
excited because during the last panchayat polls, when the Congress was in
power, the grand old party won more than 80 percent of the seats. This time the
saffron party has managed to win only 42 percent of the total seats in the
local body polls.
A warning bell for the BJP from the results is the better
performance of the Congress, which was unexpected even by the grand old party.
Congress managed to win 34 percent of the total seats, although in comparison
to the last 2013 elections, it was not a good performance. But in the current
scenario, the results testify that Congress is still a force in Assam.
The panchayat poll results have also been unexpected for Badruddin
Ajmal-led AIUDF, a party claiming to represent the interests of Muslims, which
has performed poorly. This time, the party secured the fifth position, coming
down from the second it bagged in the 2013 panchayat polls. This is due to
transfer of a section of Muslim votes from the AIUDF to the Congress. It seems
that Muslims are getting polarised in the wake of the National Citizenship
Register (NRC) issue and preferring Congress as a strong opponent against the
BJP than the AIUDF. And if this trend continues, this is no good news for the
BJP because Muslims account for 32 percent of the state population. So, if the
Congress manages to pull more Muslim votes from the AIUDF, then there will be
less chance of division of Muslim votes in the upcoming 2019 elections. There
is wide perception that in the 2016 state assembly elections, had the Congress
allied with the AIUDF, the BJP alliance wouldn’t have won. AIUDF polled 13
percent votes while the Congress got 31 percent which if added together stands
at 44 percent — 3 percent more than the BJP-AGP- BPF alliance in the last
assembly polls.
On the other hand, consolidation of local Assamese and
Hindu Bengalis in the panchayat polls behind the BJP means there is another
polarisation too — the Assamese on regional sentiments and Hindu Bengalis on
religious lines. The point to be noted is that there was a widespread
perception that the BJP would lose its core Bengali Hindu voters in the wake of
NRC controversy and also the Assamese voters but that didn’t happen. BJP, being
in power in the state, for the first time expanded, though not as expected, in
the rural areas by emerging as the largest party contesting alone.
One thing is apparent that the upcoming Lok Sabha
elections in Assam wouldn’t be a cake walk for the saffron party with a
resurgent Congress. The present scenario doesn’t prefer BJP winning the state
massively in 2019. Currently, the saffron party is having a strained
relationship with its ally AGP. It is a well known fact that had the BJP allied
with the AGP, NDA would have performed better in the panchayat polls. AGP still
won 7 percent of the seats in the rural polls. So, instead of celebrating the
results, BJP should address the warning signals hiding behind the curtains and
also try to correct the strained relationship with the alliance partner because
Muslims leaving AIUDF and rallying behind the Congress may harm the NDA if the
AGP contests alone in 2019. (IPA
Service)
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