What does about 72 per cent polling in Chhattisgarh indicate? This includes Maoist-infested areas. High percentage of voting is generally considered anti-establishment. Of other two Hindi speaking states—Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh—BJP’s chances seem to be better in Chhattisgarh. But at the end of polling, it doesn’t appear so. Raman Singh is a three-term chief minister and there is powerful anti-incumbency against him, besides charges of corruption. His hope that Ajit Jogi-Mayawati combine will divide Congress votes did not fructify. Reports say that Ajit Jogi-Mayawai combine has damaged both the BJP and the Congress.
Pre-poll situation in Telangana is turning out to be interesting. Reports say that Congress-TDP alliance has been gaining ground over Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao. Chandra Babu Naidu’s is a mass-based leader and in truncated Andhra Pradesh he is, perhaps, the tallest leader. Even though Telangana region has separated, Naidu’s following in the new state remains intact.
The Congress acted very stupidly by dividing Andhra Pradesh and carving out the new state of Telangana. The result was that the party lost its strongest bastion in South. Both Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka stood by Indira Gandhi, in post-Emergency election, when the Congress was wiped out in the country. Even though Congress has been badly mauled in Telangana and Andhra, its deep roots in the two states remain intact. This will play an important role in the Telangana election. Therefore, KCR does not seem as invincible as before and faces a grave threat from Congress-TDP alliance.
The latest is the resignation of TRS MP Konda Vishweshwara Reddy. This development has given ammunition to political rivals of KCR to target him. Reddy met Congress leaders in Delhi and is likely to join the party soon. An MP from Cevella, Reddy wrote in his letter addressed to KCR that TRS has moved away from the people. “Regretfully, based on multiple incidents, I began to feel especially in the last two years that we, as a party, were becoming more and more distant from the very people whom we had represented extremely well. We, as government, were becoming inaccessible to the people.”
Congress leaders latched on to this, saying there is resentment against TRS in the state due to the reasons that Reddy listed in his resignation letter. “TRS will lose because it is not connected with the people any more. There will be a big blast within TRS on December 11 (counting day), they say.
Mizoram is another state going to poll along with Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana but taken scarce notice by newspapers. It is only northeastern state that the Congress rules. It is also the final frontier for the BJP which is ruling, alone or in coalition, all the other states in the region. The BJP did not have a party office in Christian dominated Mizoram five years ago, but will now contest almost all 40 seats in the assembly election on November 28.
However, all is not well for the BJP. The people of Mizoram are furious at the Narendra Modi government’s efforts to bring back Bru tribals to the state. Brus are considered non-Mizos. Thousands of them had left the state in the 1970s after alleged persecution by the Mizos. The neighbouring state of Tripura built relief camps for them in Kanchanpura, 20kms from the border. A much larger exodus followed ethnic riots in 1997. Now about 46,000 Brus live in Tripura.
The Atal Bihari Vajpayee government tried to bring back Brus back to Mizoram but could not do so. In 2014 Modi and Home Minister Rajnath Singh took several steps to repatriate the Brus.
The community, however, does not want to return to Mizoram until it gets its own autonomous district council, like the persecuted Chakmas did in 1970s. The Brus also want free ration and security cover till they are resettled in Mizoram. Mizoram Chief Minister Lal Thanhawla, a Congress veteran agreed to accept the Brus but turned down the demand for autonomous council. The church and the young Mizo Association, both highly influential in the state, had pressed Lal Thanhawla to reject the demand. The 1986 Mizo Accord signed by Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and Mizo leader Laldenga, which had given Mizoram almost Kashmir like autonomy, and also given a lot of powers to Church and civil society organization.
Elections in Mizoram will be held in this background. The BJP is eyeing a goof haul in the election, especially as a couple of Congress leaders had recently jumped ship, one of them a former speaker of the assembly. “The Congress did not have any respect for me” and “under Narendra Modi India has become an economic super power. So I have decided to strength BJP in Mizoram”, the ex-speaker said. The BJP is also likely to have support of the lakh strong Chakmas, which could translate at least seven seats. The party has several Christian candidates this time.
The only Congress Chief Minister in Northeast, Lal Thanhawla is the party’s best chance to retain Mizoram. The five-time chief minister has been in power since 2008. At 76, this is probably his last election. He is confident that the double digit growth in the past five years will fetch him another term and he vows to continue with pro-poor schemes. (IPA Service
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