By
Sushil Kutty
Nawabs
of Negativity! The gender-misnomer is glaring. In prime minister-producing
Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, the ‘nawab’ is a female. Is she negative? Will Mayawati
be able to consolidate Dalit votes behind her? The BSP supremo never talks off
the cuff, trusting the written word to the inspired oral. Legend is Mayawati
was picked up by Kanshi Ram and catapulted into politics when she was preparing
for the Indian Civil Services. In hindsight, she would have failed viva voce.
And general elections 2019 will likely miss a gender-bender of an outcome.
The
nature of that future outcome is subject of discussion. Subject as in
‘Arithmetic’ and ‘Chemistry’, ‘Physics’ and ‘Biology.’ With belief
strengthening that numbers are stacked against the BJP this election, Union
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley says when it comes to Politics, it’s a always a
battle between Chemistry and Arithmetic, and Chemistry invariably wins.
Mayawati will not disagree: In 2014, she got a ‘zero’ in Uttar Pradesh, most
probably because of lack of Chemistry with the BSP base.
In
2019, she has an ally in Akhilesh Yadav and the 38-38 seat-sharing arrangement
between SP and BSP has got them out of the seedy guesthouse, where Mulayam
Singh consigned Mayawati to years ago. Mulayam’s ambition was to become Prime
Minister. Now, unable to execute the trouncing dhobi-pachchad, the aging
wrestler out of the main Dangal, room-service denied to him by son and
daughter-in-law. Samajwadi Party is a household bash!
Chemistry
has to click. Photo-ops have given optics. With both ‘Bua’ and ‘Bhatija’
reading from the written beforehand script, Mayawati seems to have prevailed.
She is the diktat, Akhilesh the Dictaphone! Asked a question at the
joint-presser in Lucknow, before Akhilesh Yadav could answer, the hot-mike
caught Mayawati’s warning: “Mord Doh, Mord Do…” i.e., “deflect, deflect”, which
the less cautious ‘Bhatija’ did to her satisfaction. Now, it all depends on
whether the caste-Yadav cast votes in tandem with caste-Dalit.
That
will be Chemistry, History and Social Science. And while analysts and pundits
will dismantle the arithmetic, put numbers to castes to add up a winning
combination, Jaitley can be trusted to crunch numbers in the February 1
interim-budget to change the Chemistry in BJP’s favour. What all sops to prop
up numbers to convert vote on account to a vote of confidence before the
elections? Jaitley, for all his Chemistry, can come up with some explosive
numbers. Governments have this advantage over the opposition: It can prop up
numbers picked out of the box random.
More
so, when the grassroots are not yet on boil. What is cooking is not clear. As
far as the SP-BSP gathbandhan goes, there is the view that Congress president
Rahul Gandhi should have done a Tejaswi Yadav and gone personally to greet
Mayawati on her birthday. Mother Sonia Gandhi had done the courtesy in 2004 and
‘Shining India’ was eclipsed! But Rahul will not be at the Mamata rally January
19 also. There must be a Congress strategy. Besides, in 2004 neither Mayawati
nor Mamata were angling to become Prime Minister.
If
Gorakhpur, Phulpur and Kairana are considered, both Arithmetic and Chemistry
are not BJP’s scoring subjects. The gathbandhan has better read both. But
there’s this teacher’s assessment that a ‘mahagathbandhan’ would have come out
with distinction. It might still happen, say some optimists. If that happens,
Mayawati’s optimism to become Prime Minister will dent. Even 50 seats in UP
will not place gathbandhan in the driver’s seat. BSP and TMC are not ‘national
parties’; the Congress is.
The
advantage for the BJP is it can use Arithmetic to change Chemistry. All ruling
parties have that edge. To call the shots. Like the CPM in Kerala. Friday, it
submitted to the Supreme Court that 51 women of child-bearing age have entered
the Sabarimala Ayyappa Temple, 51! All women between 45 and 50; half of them
from Tamil Nadu, several from Andhra Pradesh, one from Goa and only three from
Kerala.
That
is arithmetic. Cooked up, fudged? The Pinarayi Vijayan government has been less
than honest on Sabarimala. The Supreme Court Friday restricted itself to the
plea to provide 24/7 security to Ayyappa-celibacy busters Kanaka Durga and
Bindu Ammini. Chemistry bubbles in a sea of kinetic Physics. All indications
are the BJP will have to study Theology to pass the final examinations.
Jaitley’s Budget Poetry will not alone change poll Chemistry and Arithmetic as
long as Rahul Gandhi sticks to Mach speeds and smashing the sound barrier.
Physics! (IPA Service)
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